(Cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

I thought it might be interesting to get a sense of the basic current view of Internet prognosticators of the Electoral College outcomes. Three Blue Dudes provides an overview to 84 sites on the web that use various methods to project trends in the Electoral College.

Twenty-one of those web sites updated their projections yesterday, September 22. Of those 21 sites, 17 gave Obama the advantage in the Electoral College, two gave the advantage to McCain, and two projected a tie. Neither of the sites that saw an advantage for McCain projected he had enough electoral votes to claim the presidency: just that he had an advantage among the states they felt they could project. The average Electoral College projections for the 21 sites that updated their projections yesterday were these:

Abstract. Discrepancies between events on the ground and reports in the polls demand our attention, if we want to understand what’s going on. Maybe the pollsters are ignoring those who use cell phones. Maybe Hillary has asked her followers to express support for McCain to make her candidacy more compelling. Maybe the polls are suppressing actual voter preferences to set up the theft of the election without our bothering to notice.

Two days before the June 3 Democratic primary in Iowa, I received an automated push-poll, followed the next day by a second robocall containing "important information" for me. Both calls were hit jobs on Jerry Sullivan, the leading Democratic candidate in Iowa House district 59.

Many of us will receive similar calls between now and November. We need to be prepared to help the Democrats who will be targeted in this way.

My number one piece of advice is do not hang up the phone.

Do not hang up the moment you hear an automated voice on the other end.

Do not hang up the moment you are asked to participate in a brief survey.

Do not hang up the moment you realize that this is not a legitimate opinion poll.

Stay on the line and grab a pen and paper for taking notes.

Follow me after the jump for further instructions.

Since September of 2007, I've kept close tabs on the latest poll numbers. It's been interesting to see the ebbs and flows of the Presidential race, particularly after Hillary Clinton gave her concession speech two Saturdays ago. As has been firmly established, the election in November will be close, which is why I practically dismiss off-hand (while hoping them to be true, of course) the first few pronouncements that have come in the form of deeply speculative stories---delivered in a tone of cautious optimism, each of which give Obama's election in November an air of inevitability.

Cross-posted to DailyKos

Lately, I've been exposed to comments, both in the netroots community, and in the "real world," that seem assured of the ability of the Democrats to win in 2008. While most agree that the Democrats are on good footing going into 2008, at least some people, in both parties, seem to have reached the conclusion that 2008 will break Democratic because the Republicans are too damaged to win, or because the public will simply decide that it's the "Democrats turn."

Such ideas of assured victory are false, and progressive activists must not be lulled into believing otherwise.

"Who Are These Guys?"
by
JD Hill

Earlier this week I had lunch with an old friend/
former colleague who only recently returned to the
US after having lived and worked abroad for the
better part of the last twenty-five years.

According to Jack many American expatriates are no

Cross posted at Daily Kos

Today April 15th is the sixtieth anniversary of Jackie Robinson breaking the color barrier in Major League Baseball. I often hear people when explaining why they are not interested in sports say "well, its just a game." That may be true a lot of the time, but there are some moments that transcend the game, moments that become a part of the national cultural consciousness. These moments show us what sports, and life are all about. April 15, 1947 when number 42 Jackie Robinson, stepped in against Boston Braves pitcher Johnny Sain was one of those moments. Join me in celebrating the life of this extraordinary man.

A new Washington Post-ABC news poll shows a clear majority of Americans support setting a deadline for getting out of Iraq. From the post story: