As of this writing, four states have made their Democratic Presidential candidate preferences known; and for most voters the choices seem to be coming down to Obama or Clinton.
Which has not been so good for the John Edwards campaign.
While it is theoretically possible that he might yet surprise us all and garner the nomination, for the purposes of today’s discussion I’m going to assume that he won’t.
If that’s true, and the nomination is out, what might Edwards have in mind going forward?
I can’t say for certain…but that won’t keep me from guessing…which is what this discussion is all about.
As I say, I can’t offer an opinion as to the probability of this set of explanations, but the potential for such actions is there.
--Might Edwards decide at this point to run for another office? Dennis Kucinich has left the race for the Presidency to concentrate on gaining re-election to Congress, and it is possible that Edwards might choose such a path for himself as well.
His very own North Carolina would be the perfect place for such a move—Senator Elizabeth Dole is a weak re-election candidate in this cycle with no “star” Democrat having yet emerged in opposition. If Edwards were to withdraw and place the bulk of his current resources into a Senatorial race he would be far better financed than Dole, with equal or better name recognition and a better record for this cycle…not to mention that Dole has no real weapon to use against Elizabeth Edwards, should the two of them choose to run against Dole.
--Does Edwards find his future as a transelectional figure? There is evidence to support the proposition that he could. Here’s what we know: First, there is today an organization called One Corps that is operated in parallel with the Edwards campaign; and it is dedicated to providing a place for volunteer activists to gather in an effort to alleviate some of the disparities addressed by the “Two Americas” discussion.
It is not difficult to imagine Edwards travelling around the nation addressing One Corps events and giving a “Two Americas” presentation that over time has an effect similar to Al Gore’s not-so-quixotic journey giving the “Inconvenient Truth” lectures…and it’s not so tough to picture Edwards linking up with Bill Gates, Jimmy Carter, Bono, and others, to take the whole thing international—essentially creating an worldwide “People’s PAC” that could influence policy here and abroad around the growing “Two Worlds” question.
--Might Edwards simply leave the race as other Democrats have done? As of today the Edwards camp seems determined to continue the journey, presumably seeking a role to play either in this phase of the campaign, in the runup to the convention, or at the convention itself.
If this continues to be true, it suggests that Edwards is more likely to remain than to withdraw, as long as he has access to resources…and as long as neither Clinton nor Obama do something so odious as to make Edwards feel he can no longer deny the other his support.
And with all that said, it’s probably time to sum it up:
--It is entirely possible that either Edwards or one of the other candidates might be seeking a deal.
--It is also possible that Edwards will not be making any deals, but is remaining in the contest to deny another the nomination.
--Edwards might seek another elective office, and opportunity exists today in North Carolina.
--He might choose to advance causes he finds important beyond this electoral cycle by enlarging the One Corps structure or something similar.
--He might simply withdraw into retirement or private sector employment. My own “guesstimation” is that he will be unlikely to do so when the option of One Corps already exists--and offers an excellent “fallback” position for a potential ’10 or ‘12 campaign cycle candidate with no particular contest yet identified.
All of this is contingent on Elizabeth Edwards’ health status, I suspect; and an unfortunate change in her current relatively good health could alter all of these calculations dramatically.
And I think, for the moment, that’s where we stand: at a currently unknown point in the Edwards endgame that may become far more clear after the February 5th delegates are counted…or it may become far more muddied, to the delight of every political pundit in the country.
In about eight days, we’ll find out.
__________________________
