L'Orient Le Jour, Lebanon, reports that Wednesday the Shiite chief and leader of the Mahdi Army indicated that they are no longer to take "military action against the occupiers. . ." after his forces were accused of instigating bloody clashes at Kerbala, the Holy City, which resulted in Iraq Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki to enforce a curfew on the city.
The announcement doesn't signal a change of policy (of heart, evidently) as al-Sadr claims the halt is for re-organizational purposes among the ranks of his militia.
The question is, is al-Sadr's embargo on the slaughter of Americans his own initiative or the decision of his Iranian intelligence sponsors? Since evidence seems to support the latter, then we must ask what the implications are for Iran-American relations vis-a-vis Iraq. Has there been some quiet "behind the scenes" diplomatic pressure and bargaining that has brought Iran's proxy warriors to heel?
As has been reported frequently, the Shiite insurgents are splintering into an ever-increasing number of factions that has exacerbated the civil war in Iraq. It seems that the powerful al-Sadr has lost control over his forces that are suffering from "undisciplined groups within the ranks" that need to be purged. His loss of authority portents a loss of credibility if he can't bring the Mahdi Army to heel.
For months, groups tied to the Mahdi Army have organized successive attacks targeting the Sunni community, undermining Sadr's authority and the credibility of his organization.
This time, violence began when a dozen or so militants fired at police from rooftops (although al-Sadr denies the charge), leaving 51 religious pilgrims dead last Tuesday, over 300 wounded, and forcing the evacuation of 1,000,000 pilgrims who
had come to joyfully celebrate the anniversary of the 9th-century birth of their last imam, Mohammed al-Mahdi.
Al-Sadr's apparent weakening power has given al-Maliki a much-needed opportunity to exhibit his own, and he is taking it. Himself a Shiite, al-Maliki entered Kerbala, ordered the complete curfew, and proclaimed, "the situation is now under control." TV images backed up his claim, broadcasting pictures that showed the city appearing to be deserted. In a further display of his power, al-Maliki dismissed the local head of security services for failing to prevent the attacks and restore calm.
In spite of an assertion that the attacks were the work of certain people nostalgic for Saddam Hussein -- or perhaps he was taking political aim at al-Sadr? --
Hamid Gannoush, senior Sadrist and Karbala provincial council member, was arrested after being suspected of taking part in the confrontations.
Further evidence that this is a personal power struggle between the voluntarily exiled al-Sadr and al-Maliki is that different
Shiite groups in Iraq are in a fierce competition for control of the community, in particular the Prime Minister's Dawa Party and its ally the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, which are united against the Mahdi Army.
Al-Sadr's forces are engaged in a running battle with the Badr Brigade, using weapons supplied by Iran.
If the Iraq War bears any resemblance to America's war in Vietnam, especially the early stages, it probably does so best when applied to what's going on in southern Iraq.
Iranian meddling is indirect and takes shape in the under-the-table supply of weapons, funding and even advisers and experts. Kitabat, Iraq
It has become increasingly apparent that al-Sadr is the puppet general who takes his orders from Iranian intelligence operatives. They run camps and training centers to instruct the Mahdi Army (and other insurgent groups) "in urban warfare, the setting up of booby traps and the use of armor-piercing weapons." The argument is made that their trainees using their tactics have been the chief reason for the English evacuation of Basra. The bizarre twist is it was the same Iranian Intelligence who, in the 1980s, engaged in training members of the Badr Brigade to take over the rule of Iraq, anticipating the fall of Saddam Hussein. Now they're training the Mahdi Army to slaughter Badr Brigade leaders such as
the governors of Diwaniya and Samawa provinces [Khalil Jalil Hamza and Mohammed Ali al-Hassani], who were killed by elements of the Mahdi Army with Iranian booby traps made especially for tanks and armored vehicles.
Iran seems never to miss a chance to flip-flop for political expediency.
Earlier this month, Iran's Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Nasir Hamidi Zare, discussed President Ahmadinejad's trip to Baku. When asked directly if Azerbaijan might be the go-between the US and Iran regarding Iraq, he had this to say,
When our president traveled to the United States [in September 2005], he said he was ready for dialogue. But if one side doesn't want to change its position, what can Azerbaijan do about it? Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Hardly hopeful comments.
In June of this year, Iran's ambassadors were scurrying to Egypt to lay the groundwork for restoring diplomatic ties cut off in 1979 by ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a country Ahmadinejad once dismissed as the "lackey of America and the Zionists." Normalization between the nations could be an antidote to Iran's isolation due to its nuclear program. Ahmadinejad's decision has not been popular with the fundamentalists in his government.
Add to that the Iranian president's bid to visit Iraqsoon, and we have a flurry of diplomatic initiatives by Iran that, taken with the cooling of their proxy army, seems to demonstrate an anxiety to be seen as a powerful diplomatic force in the region. A role, that al-Maliki insists is true, and one that Ahmadinejad backs up.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad boldly declared Tuesday that U.S. political influence in Iraq is "collapsing rapidly" and said his government is ready to help fill any power vacuum. . .with the help of neighbors and regional friends like Saudi Arabia, and with the help of the Iraqi nation."South Carolina's homepage
President Bush may stick his head in the bloody sand trying to ignore the political reality of Iraq, but Iran is not going to join him there. While Bush refuses to undertake any resolution to his problems other than a military one, Iran chooses masterful diplomatic maneuvering. The fact is, Bush's "greatest legacy" as president may well be having taken an independent sovereign buffer state to Iranian ambitions of political hegemony in the region and handing it over to our biggest rival for power there -- and for control of some of the biggest reserves of the world's oil, too. Bet that makes Bush's Neocon buddies feel all peachy keen.
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They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.
I hope it's true that
I hope it's true that attacks on our soldiers will decrease.
__________________________Only the Mahdi Army attacks,
Only the Mahdi Army attacks, one -- though, admittedly probably the largest -- militia among the many same, or otherwise labeled "insurgents."
I learned late tonight that Iran has replaced the head of the Republican Guard, a position that has been untouched for at least a decade. Somethings is afoot. And I bet that the rigid clerics are wondering if their power is being challenged what with diplomatic overtures to Egypt, a call to cease using the Mahdi Army against Americans in Iraq, and that "changing of the Revolutionary Guard."
You don't need a graduate degree in foreign policy studies to see there are dots that need connecting.
__________________________They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.
It's my understanding that
It's my understanding that in general the Sunni insurgents have been responsible for by far the most attacks, probably supported by Saudi Arabia. I really think you put too much emphasis on Iran's ambitions. There are a lot of players in the region with ambitions. But it DOES sound like Iran is doing some repositioning. I'm glad to see that, especially if it leads to fewer casualties for us and for the Iraqis, but I worry about it being the result of Bush's threats to attack. I worry that it will lead Americans to think that his Bully Diplomacy actually works, when as far as I can see the best he can hope for is to bet back to where things were before he came into power, and not really that.
__________________________Sunni Allies in Anbar
Sunni Allies in Anbar province have been growing since June of this year, correct? In early August the (Sunni) Dulaimi tribe allied with the US to fight al-Qaeda. I wonder when the Sunni-responsible insurgent attacks will begin to subside?
I suppose the Bush administration won't hesitate to claim these small Sunni gains, and possibly al-Sadr's actions as "progress taking place in Iraq."
If increasing numbers of Sunni tribes join Sheik Ali Majid al-Dulaimi and the Mahdi Army cease fire holds, I will have to admit -- pain me though it does -- there's some truth to that clim. I'll take comfort in the fact that it's a win-win for Dems because they can still say, "Bring our troops home. They're no longer needed in the face of all that progress."
__________________________They burn our children in their wars and grow rich beyond the dreams of avarice.
If the violence subsides,
If the violence subsides, that will be a good thing. And no doubt the Republicans will hail the success of their policies, if that happens.
Never mind the obvious issues of whether the violence should have happened in the first place.
But I think that the violence will not go down at all, unless the Peace and Reconciliation approach being pushed by Finland works. That's the path to peace, not military "surges" and certainly not attacks on Iran.
The bullshittiness of the administration's policies never seems to cease. They can kiss and make up with former Sunni foes, who have killed Americans, but not with Iran, who has ALLEGEDLY killed Americans via proxies (and has ALLEGEDLY had it's soldiers killed by American proxies).
The solution is the same as its been for years, but I suspect the administration will find a way to prevent it until they get their effectively permanent bases and an oil law that effectively signs away Iraq's resources to US companies.
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