First a few facts: Water in numbers.
1% is the amount of the world's water currently fit for human consumption.
97% is the percentage of Earth's water that is saltwater.
6% is the amount of world's freshwater that will be processed in desalination facilities by 2015, (which is roughly double of the current amount)
2 billion is the number of people the UN estimates will lack sufficient water by 2050.
Concerned? We should be. Future wars? You bet they will be about water, the new oil (though this is not news, there have been numerous wars in the past that were fought about water or lack thereof, closer to home, think California Water Wars of the 30's).
As early as the mid-1980s, U.S. government intelligence services estimated that there were at least 10 places in the world where war could break out over dwindling shared water, the majority in the Middle East. I'm not surprised. The "scuffle" last summer in Lebanon was not fought exclusively along Arab/Israeli animosity but water had a great part to play as well.
In this diary I will only deal with the Middle East and parts of Africa. I'm reading up on China, India and Australia, and it's damning as well.
The major shared surface water supplies in the Middle East are the Jordan, Tigris, Euphrates, and Nile Rivers. Although the watershed of the Litani River lies entirely within Lebanon, control and allocation of its waters remain controversial. Several major groundwater aquifers are also heavily used and, in the occupied territories, strongly contested.
Jordan, Israel, Cyprus, Malta, and the countries of the Arabian Peninsula are sliding into the perilous zone where all available fresh surface and groundwater supplies will be fully utilized. Algeria, Israel, the West Bank, Gaza, Jordan, Tunisia, and Yemen are already facing a "water barrier" requiring accelerated efforts, investments, regulations, and controls just to keep apace of spiraling populations. Middle Eastern and North African countries combined will absorb 100 million people by the close of the 2008, pitting the Davidian capacity of existing water and sanitation services against the Goliath of demand.
Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia face similar prospects in 3 to 6 years. Morocco has made serious efforts in the water and sanitation sectors. Still, that country faces the prospect of a declining water supply beyond the year 2008, when its population is projected to grow to 35 million.
That's for starters.
The World Health Organization estimates that more than 1.5 billion people currently lack access to an adequate water supply, with the figure rising to 2.3 billion by 2025. The UN already cites dozens of conflicts around the world have started because of the lack of water (Darfur included). The UN chief, Ban Ki Moon said: "
It is no accident that the violence in Darfur erupted during the drought. For the first time in memory, there was no longer enough water & food for all. Fighting broke out.
This is grim indeed.
Despite the fact that our good earth is 70% covered by water, less than 2% is drinkable. The remaining water is salt water and cannot be used for drinking or agriculture without first undergoing an expensive desalination treatment. Trust some of the major multinationals for spotting a lucrative market! They have invested heavily in water purification and wastewater treatment in recent years. But it won't be enough. Not many governments are advocating less water usage or have implemented water conservation (Hello GOPhers, where is your manifesto on that issue?).
Whether or not water is better utilized in the future, there is a pressing need for increased supply today. The WHO estimates that at least 1.6 million people die each year from drinking contaminated water, and 90% of these are children under five. Last week we all read about the outbreak of cholera in Iraq due to lack of, you guessed, potable water. With rapid population growth and the incoming effect of climate change (yes, Mr. Inhofe, there is something pesky called global warming, doncha know?), the situation is set to become even more critical: according to the UN (last week) global demand for clean water will increase by 20% for agriculture, 50% for industry and 80% for domestic use by 2025.
There is a plethora of good books on this subject. I recommend "Water Wars" by Vandana Shiva and another with the same title, "Water Wars", written by Diane Raines Ward (both available from Powell's). There are more but these two are compulsory reading. There's an excellent article here too: http://www.tompaine.com/...
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