This week I have been focused on my real job, so this week's newsletter not quite as in depth as I sometimes do. This week I am focusing on what I consider some interesting races around the country. I may do that for a few weeks or so because I am learning about so many really good people running who I want to help. This week I focus on Nebraska Senate, Oklahoma Senate, and an Iowa state legislature race.
This week had the last of the Democratic debates, most likely. Seems ABC has abandoned any substance in their coverage, it seems, since their questions in the debate received almost universal condemnation as being "the most embarrassing performance by the media in a major presidential debate this year" according to Editor and Publisher. Just shows how the Ameican media further declines, which is, I guess, why people read blogs like mine.
I spent some time recently analyzing the potential November lineups based on current polls. What struck me most was a.) Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have radically different ways in which they can win, and b.) NEITHER of them has the November election locked up. We have a huge amount of work before us if we want to beat McCain. Based on current polls (which will be very unreliable) Obama is more likely to beat McCain than Clinton. But that could change this far from November. The point that is important to me is that they both are about 30-40 electoral votes behind McCain based on current polls. That isn't much to make up, but it HAS to be made up.
The other thing that strikes me is that we have basically 5-6 very close Senate races this year that Dems can pick up from Repubs and 2 more that may well develop into top tier races. That means Dems have 7-9 Senate pick up chances in 2008. By contrast, Repubs have only two shots at picking up a Dem seat: South Dakota and Louisiana. If you believe in Presidential coattails, Obama has the potential to help Senate races in the following states: Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Virginia, Alaska and New Hampshire. Pretty much the entire spread of races we have a good shot at. By contrasy, Clinton's coattails could help us in New Mexico and Minnesota. All other Senate races are in states she is doing poorly in according to current polls. Take that all with a grain of salt, but it also cannot be ignored.
Another thing that strikes me in current polling: right now Pennsylvania is solidly Dem, whether we nominate Obama or Clinton, and Ohio is solidly Repub. Clinton's main strength is she polls well in Florida. Barring fraud (which is quite possible in Florida, I believe), Clinton should win Florida. Obama probably won't. She also has a shot in West Virginia. Where Obama picks up more is in places like North Carolina, South Carolina, Nebraska, Oregon, Texas, Michigan, Wisconsin and Colorado. All of those states show McCain ahead against Clinton, but Obama has a strong shot at (he is winning, tied or within a few points of McCain). The path to winning is so different between the two candidates it is really unusual. What we need to do is consolodate the two paths to some degree so that Dems start having a shot along both paths, because neither path alone will win if you believe current polls. So Clinton supporters had better start warming to Obama and Obama supporters warming Clinton if we want to win. We don't want to be, to use Joy's works, once again "divided and conquered" by the Republicans. We do it to ourselves. So we can build rather than lose.
This weekend is Passover and the anniversary of the Warsaw Ghetto uprising (which spoiled Hitler's birthday that year). Perhaps in honor of this I will mention the excellent work of the National Jewish Democratic Council. They are against the war in Iraq, favor the peace process in Israel/Palestine, and support traditional Jewish American progressive values that grew out of the labor movement and the civil rights movement. And they are countering the right wing propoganda about Clinton and Obama on Israel.
Here is this week's newsletter:
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ERRATUM: Misinformation in last issue
WINNING THE SENATE: Targeting Nebraska: Scott Kleeb, Sexy and Smart
WINNING THE SENATE: Targeting Oklahoma: Andrew Rice, Compassion in Oklahoma
ELECTING PROGRESSIVES LOCALLY: Elesha Gayman, Progressive Grassroots Winner in Iowa
IOWA FOCUS: Sustainable Agriculture, Alternative Energy, Groups and Events
NEW YORK STATE FOCUS: Peace Vigils, Steve Harrison, Groups and Events
GEORGIA FOCUS: Young Democrats, Veterans for Peace, Groups and Events
VIRGINIA FOCUS: Tom Perriello, Impeachment, Groups and Events
CALIFORNIA FOCUS: Progressive Candidates, Alternative Energy, Groups and Events
FLORIDA FOCUS: Peace Vigils, Groups and Events
NEW JERSEY FOCUS: Blue Jersey Radio, Impeachment, Groups and Events
PENNSYLVANIA FOCUS: Progressive Candidates, Groups and Events
WISCONSIN FOCUS: Progressive Candidates, Groups and Events
MICHIGAN FOCUS: Groups and Events
TEXAS FOCUS: Alternative Energy, Groups and Events
NORTH CAROLINA FOCUS: Marshall Adame, Peace Vigils, Groups and Events
ARIZONA FOCUS: Progressive Candidates, Groups and Events
OREGON FOCUS: Groups and Events
ILLINOIS FOCUS: Peace Vigils, Sustainable Living, Groups and Events
ALASKA FOCUS: Diane Benson, Groups and Events
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