The topic below was originally posted on my blog the Intrepid Liberal Journal as well as The Peace Tree, the Independent Bloggers Alliance and Worldwide Sawdust.
Foreign Affairs published a sobering article by Bruce Riedel in their May/June issue entitled, “al Qaeda Strikes Back.” Riedel, a Senior Fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution retired last year after 29 years with the CIA.
Essentially, Riedel outlines al Qaeda’s resurgence while the Bush Administration has undermined our geopolitical position with their foolish war in Iraq. Hardly a dove, Riedel believes it is essential to our national security for al Qaeda to be “decapitated.” I agree with him. al Qaeda is a clear and present danger as a manifestation of radical Islam.
Among the failings of the Bush Administration is how their incessant fear mongering has jaded Americans about the very real dangers of terrorism that still exist. What’s required is tough minded, realistic leadership that neither exaggerates dangers for political gain nor ignores threats as President Bush did in August 2001. The last thing this country should do is hand our enemies what they want: war with Iran. Riedel issues the following warning:
“The biggest danger is that al Qaeda will deliberately provoke a war with a ‘false-flag’ operation, say, a terrorist attack carried out in a way that would make it appear as though it were Iran's doing. The United States should be extremely wary of such deception. In the event of an attack, accurately assigning blame will require very careful intelligence work. It may require months, or even years, of patient investigating to identify the plotters behind well-planned and well-executed operations, as it did for the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, and the 1996 attacks on the U.S. barracks at the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia. Presidents George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton were wise to be patient in both those cases; Washington would be well advised to do the same in the event of a similar attack in the future. In the meantime, it should, of course, continue do its utmost to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and from fomenting violence and terrorism in the Middle East by using tough diplomacy and targeted sanctions. And it should not consider a military operation against Iran, as doing so would only strengthen al Qaeda's hand -- much as the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq have.”
I have a different take on Riedel’s warning. To be blunt, the Bush Administration will not be “deceived” by a “false flag” from al Qaeda. Rather, Bush and Cheney are hoping for a pretext to avoid a humiliating withdrawal from Iraq. With Republicans ready to jettison the Bush Administration’s Iraq policy in September, a war with Iran would be quite timely and convenient.
Another false flag may be weapons smuggling into Iraq through Iran by operatives sympathetic to al Qaeda. Either way it is important to remember the antipathy that exists between Iran and al Qaeda. Iran has sponsored al Qaeda’s rival Hezbollah in Lebanon. After 9/11, Iran cooperated with Washington against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan out of their strategic self-interest. They view al Qaeda as a threat to their hegemony as well potential catalysts to instability on their borders.
Tragically, the world is at the mercy of an unholy triangle as the motivations of Iran’s President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Bush Administration and al Qaeda are converging. Ahmandinejad is besieged with problems. He’s terrified of dissent as domestic dissatisfaction with his regime intensifies. A war with the “Great Satan” would be a welcome distraction, as Iranians will surely rally to him if attacked.
al Qaeda of course thrives on instability, chaos and any act that reinforces America’s image as an imperialist at war with the Islamic people. They’re laying in the high weeds to capitalize on instability in Gaza and Lebanon as well exploit vulnerabilities in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, the Bush Administration is sucking wind and hemorrhaging support. The Republican Party is poised to pull the plug on Iraq in September. Bush and Cheney are desperate to avoid withdrawal and defeat in Iraq on their watch. A war with Iran would make extricating ourselves from Iraq nearly impossible. Of course our military, stretched to their limit in Afghanistan and Iraq is in no shape to prosecute any war with Iran. But the Bush Administration may be thinking that a controlled air war can be managed and strengthen their political position.
As we’ve also seen, the Bush Administration is not overly concerned with details such as blowback, the fog of war and the heavy lifting of managing the aftermath once hostilities are initiated. Perhaps they’re also hoping war with Iran will distract from the publicity surrounding their scandals. These people are eminently capable of deluding themselves that a controlled air war is viable and just the tonic for their problems.
Ultimately what I’m wondering is this: is America stupid enough to allow it? At this point I have little faith in the Democratic Party’s congressional leadership. It also doesn’t appear that the frontrunners for their party’s 2008 presidential nomination, Hilary Clinton nor Barak Obama possess the intestinal fortitude to stand up to aggression against Iran. They’ll sit back and see which the way the wind blows.
I don’t like cynicism and believe it’s important to work for a truly progressive majority that is sensible and mature. I will not abandon my efforts as an activist to accomplish the ideals I believe in. However, as much as I prefer optimism, we’re on a collision course with calamity. It’s like watching a pile up happening in slow motion on the freeway while George Bush, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Bin Laden crash their cars after binge drinking at an all night keg party.
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An excellent analysis of our present-day situation!
"Ultimately what I’m wondering is this: is America stupid enough to allow it?"
I believe your article is excellent, and in fact mirror my thoughts and past writings, however your coupling the Iranian situation with Al Quada adds even more credibility to the consensus of opinion that Bush will eventually attack Iran.
This is one issue I've researched and studied constantly for over two years - and have actually written and stated we shouldn't react to ANY isolated attack until we're absolutely positive it was sanctioned by Iran. I expect it to be a sunburst Missile, or several fired from one or two isolated positions in Iran - which could easily result in the deaths of hundreds - or even thousands of American lives, depending on which navy asset is targeted. According to Semour Hersh, we do "have assets on the ground" in Iran, and recent stories suggest the intrusions are from a variety of US Special Ops - some labeled as "Black Ops" because of their ultra-secret nature.
We're crazy if we believe all of these covert operations have received proper Congressional oversight - and based on our nation's past history - a false-flag attack is a very real possibility. Unfortunately, I believe that an attack on Iran is inevitable, planned before I wrote the first article predicting this very scenario when I first began Blogging, and again this January. Bush is as transparent as a pane of glass, and I'm astounded that Congress hasn't removed this maniac from office.
I have been expecting the Secret Service, FBI, or someone to march-in and arrest Bush and his accomplices via a secret indictment, taking him by surprise so he's unable to damage our nation with a last act of desperation - like a naughty child breaking his toys to spite his parents. Call me crazy, but even though I predicted it, am watching it happen, it's almost impossible for me to comprehend that a nation of 300 million people is hurtling towards another illegal and immoral war, one that could spin out of control and involve the major superpowers and escalate into a nuclear holocaust - without an all-out fight by the people themselves! This is a lesson is insanity...
Hopefully, when and if he actually gives the order - someone will arrest him on the spot - call an ambulance, and get this President some much needed mental health care. We want him sane and healthy when he's brought-up on charges of sedition and crimes against humanity, and hopefully, they're building a whole new wing at the Hague to accommodate all of his co-conspirators - a public trial that could rival Nuemburg and cleanse the conscious of America. Call me a dreamer, an idealist,or maybe just an optimist - but with as much intelligence as there is in Washington, you'd think that contingency plans have been placed into effect in case Bush decides to directly provoke another war with the intent to suspend Congress and declare himself our sole "Decider." Hopefully, his madness and lust for war hasn't spread into every segment of government.
Besides the wishful thinking I expressed above, it's imperative that Americans sound-off in unison and demand the immediate impeachment of this entire administration. This is our country, and to those who have children, me included, owe it to them to stand-up for their future. We would all protect our children with our lives if someone attempted to harm them - yet for some reason, the Average American doesn't understand that all of our lives are in the hands of a President that has refused to abide by the majority of our laws, refuses to obey Congressional directives, and for all practical purposes, is steering our country straight into World War III.
The Situation in 2007 - Escalation of the Iraqi War & Iran!
I haven't posted anything in a while, as matters of family and other issues have made it almost impossible to keep-up with all of the news, but more importantly, the time to write and express those viewpoints.
2007 should prove to be an interesting and extremely dangerous year. I and a few others predicted that President Bush would eventually attack Iran - and unfortunately, that 'attack' looms larger on the horizon than at any other time. My first attempts to alert people was actually ridiculed when I first started the series on Iran - the naysayer's actually labeling me as 'overreaching' or 'paranoid' in my assessment of Iran and the ultimate goal(s) of the Iraqi conflict. I've researched and accomplished a lot of writing in regard Iran, their military capability, and my belief that Iraq was simply a stepping-stone and a war-for-profit on the march towards an eventual confrontation with Iran. I began the series with a piece entitled "I despise Bush - But be might be a genius!" If you're a regular to my site, we all know I don't consider him to be a genius - and the article was titled as such in an effort to highlight why the war in Iraq was started, and where it would eventually lead.
Since then, I have written an entire series of articles in regard Iran which can be found in the 'Middle-East Issues' category on Justanothercoverup, some which are in great detail and have links and timelines to validate my theories and assumptions. Unfortunately, although I certainly admit to being wrong on the timeline, everything else has turned out to be right-on-target - and understand I take no solace in being right; in fact, on this issue, I would have preferred to be completely wrong! And, the possibility exists that I could still be wrong, although it would a miracle if the Democrats can stop Bush from exercising his newly enhanced "Presidential Powers." (Especially now, where Bush has signed an "Executive Order" that further empowers the office of the executive¦)
What is different in my views as opposed to many Liberals and Democrats is that as far as Iran is concerned, I am somewhat hawkish - which was an attitude I developed after countless hours of research on Iran, their activities, and general mode of operation in the Middle-east. Where Iraq was "contained" and posed no real threat to their neighbors or the United States - Iran was busily building-up their military capability, had run a clandestine nuclear program for eighteen years, and since the revelations of the Kahn incident in Pakistan, we know without doubt that Iran has pursued nuclear weapons for many years.
Iraq was not a viable threat when we toppled Hussein, but Iran was - and then ignored as they continued purchasing weaponry from China and Russia, and benefited enormously from the surge in crude oil profits brought on by the Iraq War. Now, years later, Iran has aligned itself with Russia and China through huge energy contracts - and rather than facing Iran as a sole entity, we also risk any confrontation escalating to possibly include Russia or China, or even worse, both! Neither of these obstacles was formidable or possessed the probability of a decisive escalation back when we could have handled Iran militarily - but Bush/Cheney decided on attacking Iraq instead of addressing the real strategic and political implications of a stronger Iran, which has become emboldened by a US policy that has weakened our military and cost the United States countless allies and respect throughout the civilized world!
There are many things we don't know because of the confidentiality of "national security issues," however there is much we do know, which invariably have to be brought into the equation; Iran has been offering support and weapons in our fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan; There is undeniable evidence that IED's and other sophisticated weapons have been imported from Iran into Iraq, thus increasing US causalities and their reliance of sectarian violence to further destabilize Iraq. I doubt anyone has failed to note the strong interference of Iran and Syria in Lebanon's politics, and their support of Hezbollah. This is where the domino effect comes into play, and Saudi Arabia has been supporting the Sunni's efforts to fight the Shiites, fearing a Middle-east dominated by Shiite controlled Iran. Jordan, Egypt, and other Arab nations fear Iran's apparent march toward being the Middle-East's new "Superpower," which could easily bring the entire region into a conflict that would dwarf the Iraq War in its ultimate impact on the entire region.
In this writer's opinion, a conflict with Iran, short of the impeachment of Bush/Cheney, is inevitable - which leads me to the gist of this article. We also know our southern border is porous - and possess strong evidence that Hezbollah and Iranian elements have successfully entered our country. Unlike the Iraq invasion, if a war is started with Iran, the American people can expect large-scale and deadly terrorist attacks within our own borders - and Iran has publicly affirmed that allegation, and in fact warned that such attacks both within and outside of our borders will target US interests throughout the world.
In the event of several terrorist attacks in the continental United States, I have no doubt that Bush would declare Martial Law - and in fact would have little choice to do otherwise. Such a declaration, especially with our newly defined martial law doctrine, would bring chaos to the American people. In such a scenario, we as citizens could face disruptions in vital food deliveries to local markets, medicines, shortages in gas/oil of a magnitude never before witnessed in this country, along with a bevy of other "inconveniences" that could in themselves prove to be life-threatening to those who are unprepared!
In other words, if you can see the writing on the wall, believe that a confrontation with Iran is foreseeable in the near-future, then it is up to you to prepare for your family and begin to stock surplus food items, water, medicine, and necessities much as people do on the Gulf Coast in preparation for hurricanes. We have all witnessed the shortcomings of FEMA in catastrophic disasters, and I don't believe those "shortcomings" have been properly been resolved, which means that as a people, we need to prepare ourselves for what remains to be unknown - but possibly lies right around the corner! This isn't a doomsday message, but one of caution which could mean the difference in surviving a declaration of martial law - or in the alternative, no declaration of martial law, but a significant disruption in our shipping, travel, and distribution center(s) which surely will be strained and will have to adjust to whatever attacks the US may suffer because of a War with Iran. Bush may be the "Decider" - however, many of us are "providers" for our families, and to ignore the murky future we all face, an ounce of prevention could mean the semi-comfortable survival of your family.
JAC
__________________________"The whisper becomes louder, then a voice is heard, and then crowds of voices, and eventually the whisper becomes the roar of change!" wjc
http://justanothercoverup.com